📈 2 stocks I'm watching

Trump has launched an operation to capture and extract the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, to the United States.

Is it a breach of international law? Is it OK because he’s a not a good one?

Then there is the case of Venezuelan oil. Is it the right kind?

Some are saying it’s a huge capture, and some are saying the oil isn’t the black gold everyone thinks.

But one thing is for sure…

Trump has grown more confident, and mentioned Greenland unprompted last Sunday.

He has said several times that “we need Greenland”.

Unfortunately for Trump, Denmark owns Greenland.

And unfortunately for Greenland, the United States of America is a formidable power and would absolutely crush Denmark in a fight.

Everyone knows this.

And would any European leader actually do anything to stop Trump if he decides Greenland is now his? History suggests that the answer is probably not.

It’s hardly likely Starmer and other European leaders are going to put boots on the ground in Greenland to fight the USA.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that there will be increased tension here.

Indeed, Polymarket says there is a 10% chance of Trump invading Greenland in 2026, and 11% of Trump acquiring Greenland by 2027.

If anything, Denmark should think about doing a deal to sell Greenland to the US.

It’s not unlikely that Trump will engineer a reason for it to end up in the US’s hands, in my opinion.

The market was hugely surprised on Liberation Day when Trump announced his tariffs.

And yet Trump has had a raging tariff fetish since the 80s, and he did exactly what he said he was going to.

When Trump talks about things, it definitely makes sense to listen.

I often get asked what to invest in, and whilst I’m not regulated to give personal advice, I think a better question is: “What are the mistakes that cost the most?”

And whilst there are plenty of these, there are two very big ones.

1. Believing fund managers know everything

There are some great fund managers out there, but research by Morningstar found last year that just 14% of US large cap funds beat the S&P 500 over 10 years.

Indeed, Nick Train’s fund is down 50% over the last four years.

The FTSE All-World is up 21% in that same period.

Nick Train paid himself £11 million this year and £14 million last year.

Those active management fees add up - at his investors’ cost.

2. Inflation erodes your wealth over time

Inflation is simply the cost of doing nothing.

If inflation outpaces interest, which it has historically done so, then the real value of your cash decreases every year.

This is why inflation-beating assets are necessary to grow and build your wealth.

If you’ve been looking for a systematic approach to investing to avoid these wealth-destroying traps, check out the new program I’m putting together here.

Anglo-Eastern Plantations (AEP)

This business has now changed its name to AEP Plantations, which is a pretty dumb as anyone who was familiar with the old name will now read this as Anglo-Eastern Plantations Plantations.

But let’s hope management are more astute in running the business than they are with naming it.

AEP Plantations announced a share buyback at 8:00:02 Monday morning.

This has nudged the stock up to the breakout point and I took half a position in the stock.

I’ve got half in the tank ready to add if the stock tests support around the 50 EMA.

But if it shoots away with half a position, that’s not exactly terrible.

However, it’s worth being aware of this.

The company says “we do not foresee a significant loss in Group fruit production”.

I take that to mean that it does foresee a loss, just nothing material.

And as the physical impact is still being evaluated, there could still be a negativity.

As always, if you’re not fair and weighing up both sides, then you’re only kidding yourself.

Downsides exist and it’s our job to know what the risks are.

In my opinion, there is a risk that there could be a negative update.

The forecasts leave the company on a PE of around 10, which isn’t too demanding.

It also comes with a rock solid balance sheet, with $240 million of cash at the Q3 end.

This compares to $183 million as of 31 December 2024, and is after dividend payments and share buybacks of $25.6 million.

The next stock is a pick for 2026 and has been hated for much of its listed life.

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