📈 2 stocks I'm watching

Happy Friday!

And just when you thought things had calmed down…

But it turns out I was wrong.

Trump wins!

Starmer and the EU have both now agreed a deal with the US.

A deal that is better for the US and worse for the UK and the EU, and all of the posturing and threats made by Trump paid off.

The deals could always have been worse of course, and now introduce some certainty.

But it’s clear that bullying your way and firing off various threats to confuse and obfuscate is an effective tactic against your opponents.

Maybe I should finish Art of the Deal after all.

And before we continue, a quick thank you to our sponsor XTB that offers a Stocks & Shares ISA with 0% commission on ETFs and stocks, and pays out 4.5% interest on uninvested cash, which is better than the Bank of England. You can open a free account here.

Virgin Wines (VINO)

As always, everything I write and say is my own personal opinion only. It is NOT financial advice.

I don’t accept money from listed companies to talk about them unlike other market commentators, so whilst this is independent nothing is a stock recommendation to buy or sell.

These are ideas only, and whilst I try to be balanced, sometimes I will be wrong.

Therefore, it’s important that you do your own research!

I wrote about Virgin Wines a few weeks ago and yesterday it put out its first ahead.

The strategic reset is clearly gaining momentum already with commercial partnerships showing plenty of promise.

But what caught my eye is that customer acquisition was up 28% against the prior year, with just a 6% increase in acquisition costs.

That means that Virgin Wines is acquiring significantly more customers for a slightly higher amount of marketing spend.

Now, not all customers are the same.

Focusing on CAC (Customer Acquisition Costs) alone may see a business end up with lower quality customers.

And so reducing CAC should not be the sole goal. Maximising it and using it efficiently should be.

The business has plenty of liquidity to grow, with £9.3 million in cash against a £32 million market cap.

It typically takes around three to six months to convert a new customer into a loyal and regular customer, and we can see that once people do subscribe to WineBank they are relatively sticky, as annual cancellations were down to 14.7% from 16.1% last year.

WineBank’s membership grew to 1.5% - and given the attrition of customers Virgin Wines needs to be constantly acquiring to grow - but it is still early days within the strategy reset.

Here’s the chart.

It’s been a terrible IPO (classic 2021) but there has been no dilution.

Here are the number of shares in issue for each year.

The company has also been buying back shares (up to 15% of the issued share capital allowed) with the highest price paid being 60p.

The chart is looking like a clear stage 2 uptrend this year.

I’ve taken a starting position on yesterday’s news, with the view of sizing this up if the stock tightens up and prints through 70p.

I don’t think this is a hugely high quality business.

But it doesn’t need to be.

The business is clearly turning itself around and I believe we are at the early days of a turnaround.

There are a few spots left for my Finance & Wellness Retreat.

What you can expect:

• Three days at a luxury hotel and spa estate

• Breakfasts, lunches, dinners, drinks included

• Live trading sessions and stock picking

• High performance coaching sessions

Plus, everyone who attends gets lifetime access to UK Stock Trader Pro (worth £689) in order to continue their education.

And with the rooms being double, you can also bring a partner or friend.

I’ve included all the details here.

The next stock is another disaster float potentially turning around.

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