📈 2 stocks I'm watching

We are heading into the final few weeks of Budget speculation.

One thing we can be almost certain of: tax increases are coming.

The messaging has been gently repeated, and refuses to be shot down.

In fact, I think markets would be more surprised if there were no tax increases.

Tittering around the edges is not going to fix the £30 billion hole.

So Rachel Reeves needs to go big or not bother.

In other news, Zohran Mamdani was elected New York City mayor this week.

This is a clear warning that not everyone is satisfied with Trump, as the highest number of New Yorkers hit the polls since 1969 in a victory over Trump-backed Cuomo.

Much like Rachel Reeves, Trump can blame the other party as much as they want, and it may even be a credible argument… but you can only blame the other side for so long.

At some point, people want to see results.

As Emmeline Pankhurst said… “Deeds, not words”.

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Treatt (TET)

As always, everything I write and say is my own personal opinion only. It is NOT financial advice.

I don’t accept money from listed companies to talk about them unlike other market commentators, so whilst this is independent nothing is a stock recommendation to buy or sell.

These are ideas only, and whilst I try to be balanced, sometimes I will be wrong.

Treatt shareholders voted down the 290p recommended offer by the board.

In my opinion, management usually recommend an offer because of their own self-interest.

They’re hardly going to say “Actually, we’re not the best people to run this business and so we should sell it and potentially risk our jobs in the takeover”.. are they?

Plum positions, pay rises, and other sweeteners are often in the background.

I’m not saying they’re definitely here in this instance. But it does make me wonder.

The price is currently 230p with large holder Döhler buying up to 28% pre-vote and giving them the power to block the vote (the deal needed 75% approval of shareholders to go through).

Some will say this stock is now a bargain because it’s trading at 230p and largest holder Döhler clearly believes it’s worth more.

I’d say it’s an avoid.

The stock has shed more than 80% of value in the last few years.

The last trading update was in line… but still bad.

On a forward PE of 17x, I think this business has a lot of upside priced in.

There may be upside here but not upside I’m willing to wait for or think that the risk/reward is priced attractively enough for me to take a position.

That’s fine, as there’s always another stock.

Why bother with garbage when there are far better options?

Hydrogen plays are doing well at the moment. Whilst Ceres has shot up, one other has yet to make much of a move.

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