Is this the cheapest stock on the market?

Potentially.

There’s no doubt that there are several cheap stocks on the market now.

Cheap - but also trending upwards - because we’re now in an early stage bull market.

These are the best stocks (in my opinion) to buy because not only do you get the upwards momentum but also the potential for a rerate as the stock becomes more expensive on an earnings ratio.

I like to think of it as a booster on any trade I’m in.

My biggest wins have always come buying breakouts from the same three ingredients.

  1. Extensive sideways consolidation

This allows the stale bulls time to exit and new shareholders to come in, bringing the average cost of shares bought down.

Why does this matter?

Because as this average cost comes down, you’ve got less people nursing huge losses and providing overhead supply as the stock rallies.

  1. Strengthening fundamentals

Often this will be a stock that has been a poor performer, or perhaps just a mediocre stock that is going through a big change.

Either way, the fundamentals will be turning for the better.

  1. Hated by other investors

If you buy what is liked you pay a premium for it. That much is true.

And look, sometimes these premiums are warranted.

I’m not saying buy what other people dislike as a general rule.

This is what most people think is being a contrarian. They’re wrong.

Being a contrarian is thinking for yourself, and doing what you think is best.

Going against the masses for the sake of it is just dumb (sorry).

But by buying stocks that are out favour means you’re paying little to no hype.

And if you’re right, when the herd do arrive, they push your merchandise up giving you a nice buffer or a great place to exit by nailing your profits down into strength.

This stock definitely has the former two, and I think the third too.

Enter Supreme (SUP).

Extensive sideways consolidation? Check.

Strengthening fundamentals?

Also check.

Hated by investor community?

Well, if you say Supreme someone says they won’t invest in it because of vaping.

And look at the valuation it’s on..

Less than 7x PE, rising to a 7.1 in FY25.

This is for something which is growing at a clip and is a supreme (pun intended) cash generator.

This year, it’s paid off its debt and is now in a net cash position. Maybe it’ll buy back more stock or use it acquire another business.

But yes, there is uncertainty to vaping.. and it’s a Master Distributor for a brand it doesn’t actually own (ElfBar and Lost Mary - coincidentally these are the most popular vapes in my local Sainsbury’s according to several cashiers).

So it’s not without risk.

But the biggest uncertainty about the vaping consultation is now out of the way and so buying now when the stock is clearly beating expectations (at one point expected EBITDA for the year was £19 million, and on a breakout retest, does not seem like a bad trade at all.

Obviously I’m long (and therefore biased) - but please feel free to tell me why I’m wrong!

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