👀 It begins

Well, that didn’t take long.

And we all knew it was coming.

Over the weekend, the US President announced substantial tariffs.

For Canada and Mexico, they’re getting a 25% tariff on imports, with a specific 10% on Canadian energy products.

For China? An additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies.

And, predictably, those faced with tariffs didn’t just bend over and accept it.

Or at least, not just yet.

Canada implemented 25% tariffs on a range of U.S. goods valued at $107 billion.

Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs, though specific details remain pending.

And China has declared intentions to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.

Naturally, the announcement of these tariffs has seen market volatility already.

The US dollar strengthened, causing the Canadian dollar to drop to its lowest level against the U.S. currency since 2003. The Mexican peso also declined by over 2%. The euro decreased by 1%, and currencies across the Asia-Pacific region experienced declines.

But what’s interesting for me is that US stock futures saw significant declines, and Asian markets opened the week with downward trends.

So it seems at the moment, nobody is seeing these tariffs as positive.

And within the US itself, the tariff decisions have faced criticism.

Members of the President's own party have expressed concerns over the potential economic repercussions.

Plus, trade associations representing consumer goods, oil, and automotive sectors have warned of possible inflationary effects and disruptions to supply chains stemming from the new tariffs.

But that’s not all.

Trump has indicated a definite intention to impose tariffs on the EU.

Given that we’re no longer in the EU anymore… it seems we escape.

However, in preparation, the EU has developed contingency plans, which include potential retaliatory tariffs exceeding 50% on certain U.S. imports.

The bloc has stated it will "respond firmly" to any such measures.

Plus, Mexico is expected to announce the country's initial retaliatory actions later today.

So it’s bad news for US consumers who like avo on toast, especially with the little tomatoes on top. Because avocados, tomatoes, and tequila may be set to rise.

And Trump himself has acknowledged the potential short-term discomfort, stating there will be "a little pain" but believes "people understand that."

I guess we’ll see. But as he’s who the people voted for, he has a point.

Whether the US population likes the cake they baked with the ingredients they chose is a different question, but its looking like tariffs all around for now.

But it just goes to show that the efficient market may not be quite so efficient after all.

The market rallied when Trump won. Now the market sinks when Trump does what he said he was going to do. Funny that!

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Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)

It’s worth keeping a closer eye on this.

According to Reuters over the weekend, Iraq’s parliament approved a budget amendment aimed at unblocked northern oil exports.

The parliament has stated that its goal is to get the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline flowing again.

I wasn’t able to publish this pre-market as it was a day trade for me, and I don’t want to be accused of pumping the price for my own exit, but if the ITP does indeed start flowing again then the cash levels at this business could rocket.

As the stock wasn’t gapping up much this was an excellent risk/reward.

It meant that if people jumped on the news, there was a move for me, and if they didn’t then I could exit with little downside.

However, be careful when it comes to the ITP flowing.

If you’re early? Great. But don’t be a Johnny-Come-Lately if you can help it.

Buying news when the stock has already significantly moved means the risk/reward is less in your favour than if you were buying on the news.

Doesn’t mean you can’t make money. But it means you’re getting poorer odds.

And as you’re the house, you want to be making good odds, not playing someone else’s.

And whenever you’re ready..

There are three ways I can help you.

1. If you’re wanting to profitably trade UK stocks then I’d recommend my entry level course:

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2. Want more trading ideas and a clearer view of the markets?

Buy The Bull Market Premium: Free 30-day trial covering potential trades and insights as a professional trader.

3. Want to work with me personally?

Alpha Trader is where I work closely with traders who want to get to a professional level.

We have our own channel, meet up, and have fun trading and learning [closed].

Speak soon!
Michael